https://audio.dev/ -- @audiodevcon
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How Long Will It Take? Using the Cynefin Model and Probabilistic Forecasting in Software Projects - Simon Holt & Ross Chisholm - ADC 2024
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In this talk we explore forecasting for software projects, particularly at longer range when scope and specifications may not yet be fully known.
We look at the Cynefin model, to help assess whether a project or piece of work is Complex or Complicated, and why it matters.
From that assessment we look at which of the many Agile framework methodologies and tools are right for the job at hand.
- How do Business, Operations, Hardware and Software efforts interact, and how do our burn up/down charts work together with Waterfall planning?
- How to estimate backlogs (Scrum or Kanban), especially early in the project?
- What are the other factors in our delivery strategy to consider?
Key takeaway:- We look at probabilistic forecasting, as part of Actionable Agile, and how important this has become at Focusrite for helping us forecast “How long will it take?”
Background
Whatever the size and nature of your company or day to day work, if you have customers and perhaps also competitors, you will probably have encountered a situation where someone depended on something you were doing.
In a larger company, perhaps with investors, a competitive market, sales channels and a customer base, the level of confidence you have in your development approach becomes quite important. In a smaller company or start up, you still have to eat and pay rent, there is effort and cost for marketing and product launches, with holiday season(s) and trade shows to hit. If you’re also making hardware things of any kind, you have to physically build them (lots) and get them to people (all over the place). The importance of quality, reputation and brand may vary a bit, but beyond the early adoption phase of a product, customer trust is important, and we can’t compromise there too much for too long.
Devices and workflows are increasingly inter-connected, with more features and functionality meaning that products and technologies are increasingly more complicated. To keep the workflow and UI simple, it usually belies the amount of technology and complexity under the hood and at work in the background.
So in a world where market competition is often increasing, customers increasingly expect more, and any changes to a plan you had will create extra effort and knock on impact … How can we increase our confidence when answering the question “How long will it take?”
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Slides: https://data.audio.dev/talks/2024/how-long-to-clean-your-kitchen/slides.pdf
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Simon Holt
Simon is Engineering Director at Focusrite, supporting the engineering teams and communities across the Focusrite and Novation brands.
With an early career background in electronics and manufacturing, he has since worked across a range of engineering companies and disciplines, helping teams grow and deliver exciting new products.
The love of music tech has always been his passion, with personal interests in music production and DJ’ing. He’s also a fan of the great outdoors, enjoying walking, running, cycling, and generally looking for an adventure!
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Ross Chisholm
Ross is currently the Head of Embedded Software at Focusrite, responsible for the teams developing embedded software, automation, and DSP for Focusrite and Novation brands.
Ross graduated from the Music and Sound Recording Course at the University of Surrey back in 2011, initially focusing on hardware and firmware development of both MIDI Controllers and Audio Interfaces before eventually moving solely to focus on embedded software development. He now focuses on helping to develop engineering teams to deliver amazing products as well as volunteering as a mentor for The Access Project to help promote STEM subjects for the next generation.
Outside of work, Ross is a keen runner completing several half marathons and marathons.
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ADC is an annual event celebrating all audio development technologies, from music applications and game audio to audio processing and embedded systems. ADC’s mission is to help attendees acquire and develop new audio development skills, and build a network that will support their audio developer career.
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Streamed & Edited by Digital Medium Ltd: https://online.digital-medium.co.uk
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Organized and produced by JUCE: https://juce.com/
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Special thanks to the ADC24 Team:
Sophie Carus
Derek Heimlich
Andrew Kirk
Bobby Lombardi
Tom Poole
Ralph Richbourg
Jim Roper
Jonathan Roper
Prashant Mishra
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